臆測

1. Origins, structure, and basic meaning

• Structure: 臆測（おくそく） means guessing without sufficient grounds.
• Basic usage: Use it for blaming someone without evidence or speculating about results before an announcement.

2. Common pitfalls and similar expressions

• Judging the basis of a guess
  • 推測 can describe drawing an inference from available information.
  • 臆測 strongly suggests a guess with insufficient grounds and carries a critical tone.